Soccer
The Pre-World Cup Friendlies That Actually Mean Something (and the Ones That Dont)
Only about 12% of pre-World Cup friendlies carry tactical signal that holds in the tournament. Three filters separate signal from noise.
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NBA
NBA Finals 2026 Preview: The Two Numbers That Will Decide the Series
The 2026 NBA Finals open this week with the predictable flood of preview coverage — power rankings, X-factor breakdowns, position-by-position…
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Stats with a story. Numbers with nerve.
NBA
What History Says About NBA Finals Game 1: Why the Opener Doesnt Predict the Series
NBA Finals Game 1 winners take the series only ~60% of the time, not the 80-90% the broadcast narrative implies. Heres what the 76-series...
NFL
Success Rate vs EPA: When the Two Best NFL Stats Disagree
January 26, 2025. AFC Championship in Kansas City. The Bills produce one of the cleanest offensive performances of their season…
Soccer
Press Maps and Defensive Shapes: Reading Modern Football’s Tactical Geometry
Press maps and defensive shapes — what they show, how they're built, where they break, and how to read them in a match preview...
Methods
The Usage-Rate Mirage: When Having the Ball Becomes the Alibi
Usage rate is not a halo. Sometimes it explains the burden. Sometimes it hides the mess.
Methods
The Possession Trap: When 62 Percent of the Ball Means Less Than You Think
Possession sounds like control until the team with 38 percent gets the three best chances and walks away laughing.
Methods
The Schedule Tax: Why Every Hot Streak Owes the Calendar Money
A streak can be a revelation. It can also be four tired opponents, two backup centers, and a calendar with a sense of humor.
Methods
What Makes a Sports Metric Useful, Not Just Popular
In 2007, John Hollinger’s Player Efficiency Rating sat at the top of nearly every NBA conversation that pretended to be…
Methods
Survivorship Bias: Why Every Champion Looks Inevitable When You Already Know Who Won
Survivorship bias, how it warps every sports retrospective, where it shows up in the data, and how to write around it without falling into...
WNBA
The WNBA Three-Point Revolution: Where the League Is Headed
The WNBA's three-point revolution — what's driving it, what the data shows about its acceleration, where the league is still constrained, and how to...
Newsroom
How a Single Game Becomes a Trend: The Mechanics of Sports Narrative Building
How a single game becomes a trend, how the trend hardens into a narrative, how the narrative survives even after the underlying performance falls...